Oil and food prices in Malaysia: a nonlinear ARDL analysis

Abstract

The present paper analyses the relations between food and oil prices for Malaysia using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model. The bounds test of the NARDL specification suggests the presence of cointegration among the variables, which include the food price, oil price and real GDP. The estimated NARDL model affirms the presence of asymmetries in the food price behavior. Namely, in the long run, we find a significant relation between oil price increases and food price. Meanwhile, the long run relation between oil price reduction and the food price is absent. Furthermore, in the short run, only changes in the positive oil price exert significant influences on the food price inflation. With the absence of significant influence of oil price reduction on the food price both in the long run and in the short run, the role of market power in shaping the behavior of Malaysia’s food price is likely to be significant.